WYFI debt is non-recourse to BTBT parent — BTBT's ETH and cash are insulated from WYFI-level distress. Shown consolidated per GAAP.
Net NAV/share — all WYFI scenarios at ETH $2,326
Implied BTBT price by NAV discount
Historical NAV discount calibration — 3 data points
📍 March 27, 2026 — WYFI 52-week low ~0% discount
WYFI price$10.51 (52-wk low)
ETH price~$1,991
BTBT actual price~$1.30
Model NAV/share at those inputs—
Implied discount at $1.30—
When both WYFI and ETH were at their lows, BTBT traded at essentially zero discount to NAV — the market priced it at fair value. This confirms BTBT does track its underlying assets, it just tends to lag on the upside after rallies.
📍 ~October 13, 2025 — WYFI near 52-week high ~20% discount
WYFI price~$40.75 (52-wk high)
ETH price~$4,250
BTBT actual price~$4.00
Model NAV/share at those inputs—
Implied discount at $4.00—
At peak conditions, the market applied roughly a 20% discount — likely reflecting normal holding company friction and the complexity of a dual-asset structure. This appears to be the floor of friction regardless of how good conditions are.
📍 May 8, 2026 — Today ~20% discount
WYFI price$21.58
ETH price~$2,326
BTBT actual price$1.80
Model NAV/share at those inputs—
Implied discount at $1.80—
Today's discount is consistent with the ~20% observed at peak conditions — meaning the market is, surprisingly, already pricing BTBT at roughly its historically tight discount. The thesis isn't about discount compression from a wide gap; it's about WYFI's price itself moving higher on earnings, which directly lifts the NAV that the 20% discount is applied to.
Thesis conclusion
At 20% discount, BTBT at current WYFI/ETH prices implies a fair price of — — very close to where it actually trades, confirming the discount is already tight. The real upside driver is WYFI's price. If WYFI moves to $30 on earnings with discount holding at 20%, implied BTBT is — — a — gain. If the discount compresses to 0% at $30 WYFI, implied price is — — a — gain. The May 14 catalyst is therefore primarily a bet on WYFI's price action, not discount compression.
WYFI key facts from SEC filings
IPO date & price
Aug 8, 2025
$17.00 on Nasdaq
52-week range
$10.51–$40.75
Current ~$21.58 (May 8)
Shares outstanding
38.37M
BTBT owns 27.04M = 70.5%
Public float
~11.3M shares
Razor thin — squeeze fuel
Cerebras / MTL-3
5 MW contract
CAD 1.4M/mo since Nov 1, 2025
Nscale / NC-1
$865M / 10yr
40 MW, billing starts June 2026
Convertible notes
$230M @ 4.5%
Conv. price ~$25.91, due 2031
BTBT lock-up
All of 2026
CEO confirmed, no WYFI sales
FY2025 revenue
~$77.7M
Cloud $68.8M + Colo $8.9M
2026 capacity target
76 MW gross
MTL-2, MTL-3, NC-1
WYFI earnings
May 14, 2026
Pre-mkt. BTBT reports same day AH
CRBS IPO
May 13/14
Cerebras pricing night before
Not financial advice. Simplified NAV — excludes PP&E, receivables, operating liabilities, minority interest, and deferred taxes. WYFI debt is non-recourse to BTBT parent but shown consolidated per GAAP.